Friday, August 2, 2013

Even with an economics background I am always baffled by the analysis of the ever so politically correct economic writers. / Walaupun dengan latar belakang ekonomi saya sentiasa bingung dengan analisis penulis ekonomi sekarang

Assalamu 'Alaikum
Even with an economics background I am always baffled by the analysis of the ever so politically correct economic writers. / Walaupun dengan latar belakang ekonomi saya sentiasa bingung dengan analisis penulis ekonomi sekarang

Even with an economics background I am always baffled by the analysis of the ever so politically correct economic writers. The US flooded the world with green pieces of toilet paper over the recent years in their so called Quantitative Easing . Then they threatened or decided to stop further episodes of this craziness and that according to these politically correct economists spells doom for the rest of the world, the Malaysian economy not excluded?

I mean, shouldn't we be celebrating that the US have decided to stop this madness?! It’s not unlike we flooding small kids with lollipops and suddenly we worry about their health because we intend to stop giving them another flood of lollipops?! These writers did not they realised that with QE the US bought the world's real assets, our palm oil etc, with green pieces of toilet paper?!! Shouldn't this be their concern instead of worrying the US will stop further flooding of these green toilet paper?!

This is the problem when the world is run by West psychophants who see no evil, hear no evil, understand no evil about the western systems which they embrace unquestioningly as the only gospel truth.

When will a new class of Muslim leaders arise with impeccable intellect to understand what ails the world and how it can be remedied via Muslim world cooperation in implementation of Quranic solutions?

Alas we will not get there if the ummah itself does not understand the issues and the possible solutions. The rot is so deep. Over the centuries they not only brainwashed our education; overwhelmed our culture, and tainted our values, but also drummed hopelessness in our soul that we deride every attempt to change.

Never so true Surah AlRa'd Ayah 11

"Verily never will God change the condition of a people until they change it themselves."

Ramadhan Kareem.


Walaupun dengan latar belakang ekonomi saya sentiasa bingung dengan analisis penulis ekonomi sekarang. AS membanjiri dunia dengan kepingan kertas tandas hijau (iaitu USD) sejak beberapa tahun kebelakangan dalam apa yang dipanggil Quantitative Easing mereka. Kemudian mereka mengancam atau memutuskan untuk menghenti episod seterusnya kegilaan ini, dan mengikut pakar ekonomi sekarang ini akan mendatangkan masaalah untuk seluruh dunia, ekonomi Malaysia tidak dikecualikan?

Maksud saya, tidakkah seharusnya kita meraikan keputusan Amerika Syarikat untuk menghentikan kegilaan ini! Ia seolah kita banjiri kanak-kanak kecil dengan lolipop dan tiba-tiba kita bimbang tentang kesihatan mereka kerana kita berhasrat untuk berhenti memberi mereka satu lagi banjiran lolipop?! Penulis-penulis ini tidakkah mereka sedar bahawa dengan QE Amerika Syarikat membeli aset-aset dunia, termasuk antara lain minyak sawit kita , dengan kepingan kertas tandas hijau?!
Bukan kah ini yang sepatutnya menjadi perhatian mereka dan bukannya kebimbangan AS akan menghentikan banjiran selanjutnya kerta tandas hijau?!

Inilah masalahnya apabila dunia dikuasai pemuja Barat yang tidak nampak apa-apa kejahatan dan kecacatan langsung dalam sistem barat yang mereka sanjung dan amal.

Bilakah angkatan baru pemimpin berintelek Islam akan timbul yang memahami apa yang merosak dunia sekarang dan memahami bagaimana untuk perbaikinya melalui kerjasama dunia Islam dalam pelaksanaan penyelesaian-penyelesaian Al-Quran?

Malangnya kita tidak akan sampai ke sana jika ummah itu sendiri tidak memahami isu-isu dan penyelesaian yang perlu dilaksanakan. Kereputan jiwa kita angkara penjajahan Barat begitu mendalam. Sepanjang beberapa abad mereka memerosakkan ilmu-ilmu pendidikan kita, mensongsangkan budaya kita, dan mencemari nilai-nilai kita; dan bukan setakat itu, mereka menanamkan perasaan putus asa dalam jiwa kita sehingga kita cemuhi setiap usaha dan langkah untuk perubahan.

Benar sekali Surah AlRa'd Ayah 11

"Sesungguhnya Allah tidak akan mengubah keadaan sesuatu kaum sehingga mereka mengubah keadaan diri mereka sendiri."

Ramadhan Kareem.


Ringgit selloff appears exaggerated
• Vidya Ranganathan & Siva Sithraputhran, Reuters
• 10:58PM Aug 1, 2013
ANALYSIS Malaysia's normally tranquil currency and bond markets have been whipsawed by an exodus of foreign capital as investors reassess emerging markets most at risk from a withdrawal of US easy money policy, heightening the possibility of a vicious sell-off that could hurt the economy.

The ringgit currency is at three-year lows against the dollar and month-long selling has pushed 10-year Malaysian government bond yields to their highest in 2-1/2 years.

Economic growth is slowing, the country's typically large trade surplus has nearly disappeared and the government has been dragging its feet on much-needed reforms to fix a large fiscal deficit - all giving foreign investors reason to re-evaluate their exposure to the Southeast Asian country.

But a bigger worry for them has been talk that regular bulk domestic buyers of Malaysian bonds, the state pension fund and banks included, are purchasing less. That has led to heavier selling than analysts think is justified by the economic risks.

"The buyer of last resort is less evident," said Claudio Piron, strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

As of May, foreigners held nearly 50 percent of outstanding government bonds, the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) a little more than 30 percent and the rest by local banks and insurers.

The latest central bank data shows foreign holdings slipped to RM137.88 billion ($42.5 billion) in June from RM144.5 billion in May.

Falling bond yields and the pressure to improve returns have compelled banks to divert investments into corporate bonds and longer-term Islamic finance products, analysts said.

The EPF hasn't explicitly said it will slow its bond purchases. But 55 percent of its investments are in bonds and it has said it wants to expand its foreign portfolio in search of higher yields.

Sources told Reuters last week the EPF is investing in German and French properties.

It is little surprise then that a redemption of RM9.2 billion of local government bonds this week unnerved foreigners, exaggerating fears about the economy even though it far more resilient to capital flows than peers such as Indonesia, India, Thailand or South Korea.

Fitch Ratings added to those worries on Tuesday, placing Malaysia's A minus rating on negative outlook, citing weak prospects for reforms to fix public finances.

So far, the selloff in Malaysia stops short of being termed turmoil. The ringgit has fallen 6.6 percent since May 22, when the Fed first raised the spectre of early stimulus withdrawal, less than the Indian rupee's 8.5 percent drop.

The stock market is down 2 percent in the past week, only a fraction of the 33 percent gains in two years.

The risk is that the falling currency and the spotlight on the shrinking current account surplus will push Malaysia into a vicious feedback loop of capital outflows and plunging markets.

"It's a slippery slope," said Piron.

"But the issue of whether Malaysia becomes an India or Indonesia is when the outflows jeopardise the fundamental picture and the fundamental picture jeopardises the flows picture. Then it becomes more serious."

Waiting for policy response

For emerging market investors positioning for tighter Federal Reserve policy, the possibility that the current account surplus will vanish this year puts Malaysia in the same basket as India, Indonesia and Thailand - economies that are highly vulnerable to sudden shifts in foreign capital.

That was a point Fitch made, although the delay in measures to fix government debt that is close to hitting a constitutional ceiling of 55 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) was the primary reason for the negative outlook on ratings.

A failure to contain spending will render it impossible for the government to bring its budget deficit down to a targeted 3 percent of GDP by 2015, from 4.5 percent in 2012.

The primary means for doing that would be through a general sales tax and a reduction of heavy subsidies on fuel.

But Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak must safely negotiate internal party elections on Oct 5 to solidify his position before he can attempt to take any such unpopular measures.

His position is weak after his Barisan Nasional coalition scraped through with a depleted majority in the general election in May.

Markets appear sceptical about prospects for reform. The ringgit firmed only briefly before retreating on Thursday after Najib said his government was committed to improving the fiscal position and would announce steps to do so in October.

Meanwhile, plunging prices of Malaysia' palm oil exports and rising copper imports have hurt the trade balance, although analysts expect the current account will still show a marginal surplus in 2013.

Ten-year bond yields have risen more than a 100 basis points, crossing 4 percent for the first time since early 2011, but yields were above 5 percent in 2008, before global central banks embarked on pump-priming crisis measures.

HSBC data shows foreigners pumped $9.3 billion into Malaysian bonds in 2012, and $5 billion until May this year.

"There's so much pretty mobile money that has poured in and can pour out," said Gerald Ambrose, managing director at Aberdeen Asset Management in Kuala Lumpur.

"By that token, the exodus of all this money can be a problem. It can be self-fulfilling."

- Reuters
via gm--

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